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Updating the poverty estimates in Serbia in the absence of micro data : a microsimulation approach, Volume 1
 
Author:Cojocaru, Alexandru; Olivieri, Sergio; Collection Title:Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 6889
Country:Serbia; Date Stored:2014/05/27
Document Date:2014/05/01Document Type:Policy Research Working Paper
SubTopics:Rural Poverty Reduction; Economic Theory & Research; Inequality; Services & Transfers to Poor; Poverty Impact EvaluationLanguage:English
Region:Europe and Central AsiaReport Number:WPS6889
Volume No:1  

Summary: The continued poverty impact of the financial crisis in Serbia is difficult to establish beyond 2010 because of the lack of survey data. This paper tackles this difficulty. It uses a micro-simulation approach that accounts for a key pathway of the financial crisis in Serbia, the labor market. The results suggest a further increase in poverty in 2011 on account of a continued deterioration of the labor market indicators and despite a recovering gross domestic product. In order to evaluate the forecast, the model is applied to generate forecasts for previous years (2009 and 2010), which are compared with realized poverty estimates. The micro-simulation model performs well in predicting poverty dynamics during 2009-10 and less so during 2008-09. The accuracy of the predictions improves when the response of the social protection system is accounted for.

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