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Predicting World Bank project outcome ratings, Volume 1
 
Author:Geli, Patricia; Kraay, Aart; Nobakht, Hoveida; Country:World;
Date Stored:2014/08/12Document Date:2014/08/01
Document Type:Policy Research Working PaperSubTopics:Poverty Monitoring & Analysis; Rural Portfolio Improvement; Housing & Human Habitats; Banks & Banking Reform; Development Economics & Aid Effectiveness
Language:EnglishRegion:The World Region
Report Number:WPS7001Collection Title:Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 7001
Volume No:1  

Summary: A number of recent studies have empirically documented links between characteristics of World Bank projects and their ultimate outcomes as evaluated by the World Bank's Independent Evaluation Group. This paper explores the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance of empirical models relating project outcomes to project characteristics observed early in the life of a project. Such models perform better than self-assessments of project performance provided by World Bank staff during the implementation of the project. These findings are applied to the problem of predicting eventual Independent Evaluation Group ratings for currently active projects in the World Bank's portfolio.

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