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Confronting the food-energy-environment trilemma : global land use in the long run, Volume 1
 
Author:Steinbuks, Jevgenijs; Hertel, Thomas W.; Collection Title:Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 6928
Country:World; Date Stored:2014/06/18
Document Date:2014/06/01Document Type:Policy Research Working Paper
SubTopics:Environmental Economics & Policies; Environment and Energy Efficiency; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases; Climate Change Economics; Energy and EnvironmentLanguage:English
Region:The World RegionReport Number:WPS6928
Volume No:1  

Summary: Economic, agronomic, and biophysical drivers affect global land use, so all three influences need to be considered in evaluating economically optimal allocations of the world's land resources. A dynamic, forward-looking optimization framework applied over the course of the coming century shows that although some deforestation is optimal in the near term, in the absence of climate change regulation, the desirability of further deforestation is eliminated by mid-century. Although adverse productivity shocks from climate change have a modest effect on global land use, such shocks combined with rapid growth in energy prices lead to significant deforestation and higher greenhouse gas emissions than in the baseline. Imposition of a global greenhouse gas emissions constraint further heightens the competition for land, as fertilizer use declines and land-based mitigation strategies expand. However, anticipation of the constraint largely dilutes its environmental effectiveness, as deforestation accelerates prior to imposition of the target.

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