Macroprudential stress testing of credit risk : a practical approach for policy makers, Vol. 1 of 1

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Macroprudential stress testing of credit risk : a practical approach for policy makers

Author:	Buncic, Daniel; Melecky, Martin;	Collection Title:	Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5936
Country:	Europe;	Date Stored:	2012/01/05
Document Date:	2012/01/01	Document Type:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English	Region:	Europe and Central Asia
Report Number:	WPS5936	SubTopics:	Bankruptcy and Resolution of Financial Distress; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Economic Theory & Research; Banks & Banking Reform; Debt Markets
Volume No:	1 of 1

Summary: Drawing on the lessons from the global financial crisis and especially from its impact on the banking systems of Eastern Europe, the paper proposes a new practical approach to macroprudential stress testing. The proposed approach incorporates: (i) macroeconomic stress scenarios generated from both a country specific statistical model and historical cross-country crises experience; (ii) indirect credit risk due to foreign currency exposures of unhedged borrowers; (iii) varying underwriting practices across banks and their asset classes based on their relative aggressiveness of lending; (iv) higher correlations between the probability of default and the loss given default during stress periods; (v) a negative effect of lending concentration and residual loan maturity on unexpected losses; and (vi) the use of an economic risk weighted capital adequacy ratio as the relevant outcome indicator to measure the resilience of banks to materializing credit risk. The authors apply the proposed approach to a set of Eastern European banks and discuss the results.


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