World oil price and biofuels : a general equilibrium analysis, Vol. 1 of 1

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World oil price and biofuels : a general equilibrium analysis

Author:	Timilsina, Govinda R.; Mevel, Simon; Shrestha, Ashish;	Collection Title:	Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5673Paper is funded by the Knowledge for Change Program (KCP)
Country:	World;	Date Stored:	2011/06/02
Document Date:	2011/06/01	Document Type:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English	Major Sector:	Energy and mining
Rel. Proj ID:	1W-Economic And Environmental Impacts Of Biofuels -- -- P113535;	Region:	The World Region
Report Number:	WPS5673	Sub Sectors:	Energy efficiency in Heat and Power
SubTopics:	Energy Production and Transportation; Climate Change Economics; Markets and Market Access; Food & Beverage Industry; Renewable Energy	TF No/Name:	TF092095-KCP ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF BIOFUELS
Volume No:	1 of 1

Summary: The price of oil could play a significant role in influencing the expansion of biofuels. However, this issue has not been fully investigated yet in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium model, this study analyzes the impact of oil price on biofuel expansion, and subsequently, on food supply. The study shows that a 65 percent increase in oil price in 2020 from the 2009 level would increase the global biofuel penetration to 5.4 percent in 2020 from 2.4 percent in 2009. A doubling of oil price in 2020 from its baseline level, or a 230 percent increase from the 2009 level, would increase the global biofuel penetration in 2020 to 12.6 percent. The penetration of biofuels is highly sensitive to the substitution possibility between biofuels and their fossil fuel counterparts. The study also shows that aggregate agricultural output drops due to an oil price increase, but the drop is small in major biofuel producing countries as the expansion of biofuels would partially offset the negative impacts of the oil price increase on agricultural outputs. An increase in oil price would reduce global food supply through direct impacts as well as through diversion of food commodities and cropland toward the production of biofuels.


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