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The impact of water supply variability on treaty cooperation between international bilateral river basin riparian states, Volume 1
 
Author:Dinar, Ariel; Blankespoor, Brian; Dinar, Shlomi; Kurukulasuriya, Pradeep; Country:World;
Date Stored:2010/06/22Document Date:2010/05/01
Document Type:Policy Research Working PaperSubTopics:Common Property Resource Development; Water and Industry; Town Water Supply and Sanitation; Water Supply and Sanitation Governance and Institutions; Drought Management
Language:EnglishMajor Sector:Energy and mining; Water, sanitation and flood protection; Transportation
Rel. Proj ID:1W-Options For Cleaner Energy In Developing Countries : Transbound -- -- P108623;Region:The World Region
Report Number:WPS5307Sub Sectors:General water, sanitation and flood protection sector; Roads and highways; Power
Collection Title:Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5307TF No/Name:TF090682-OPTIONS FOR CLEANER ENERGY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES AND OVERCOMING BARRI
Volume No:1  

Summary: This paper assesses the impact of water supply variability on treaty cooperation between international bilateral river basin riparian states. Climate change is anticipated to change the variability of water supply, as well as its expected magnitude. Previous studies have focused mainly on water scarcity, measured in terms of mean precipitation or per capita water availability in the country, as a trigger for conflict or cooperation. The water variability measure used here captures both annual runoff variability and precipitation variability over periods of 30 and 100 years. The analysis used economic and international relations data to identify incentives for international cooperation in addressing water supply variability. The authors find that small-to-moderate increases in variability create an impetus for cooperation, although large increases in variability would reduce incentives for treaty cooperation. Stronger diplomatic and trade relations support cooperation, while uneven economic power inhibits cooperation. Various measures of democracy/governance suggest different impacts on cooperation across the basin riparians. The findings have policy implications in the context of preparedness for impacts of climate change on the water sector.

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