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Energy demand models for policy formulation : a comparative study of energy demand models, Volume 1
Author:Bhattacharyya, Subhes C.; Timilsina, Govinda R.; Country:World;
Date Stored:2009/03/17Document Date:2009/03/01
Document Type:Policy Research Working PaperSubTopics:Energy Production and Transportation; Environment and Energy Efficiency; Energy Demand; Energy and Environment; Economic Theory & Research
Language:EnglishMajor Sector:Energy and mining
Rel. Proj ID:1W-Mitigating Climate Change By Avoiding Lock-Ins To High Carbon E -- -- P104079;Region:The World Region
Report Number:WPS4866Sub Sectors:Renewable energy
Collection Title:Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 4866Paper is funded by the Knowledge for Change Program (KCP)TF No/Name:TF057372-KCP:
Volume No:1  

Summary: This paper critically reviews existing energy demand forecasting methodologies highlighting the methodological diversities and developments over the past four decades in order to investigate whether the existing energy demand models are appropriate for capturing the specific features of developing countries. The study finds that two types of approaches, econometric and end-use accounting, are used in the existing energy demand models. Although energy demand models have greatly evolved since the early 1970s, key issues such as the poor-rich and urban-rural divides, traditional energy resources, and differentiation between commercial and non-commercial energy commodities are often poorly reflected in these models. While the end-use energy accounting models with detailed sector representations produce more realistic projections compared with the econometric models, they still suffer from huge data deficiencies especially in developing countries. Development and maintenance of more detailed energy databases, further development of models to better reflect developing country context, and institutionalizing the modeling capacity in developing countries are the key requirements for energy demand modeling to deliver richer and more reliable input to policy formulation in developing countries.

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