External interventions and the duration of civil wars

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External interventions and the duration of civil wars, Volume 1

Author:	Elbadawi, Ibrahim A.; Sambanis, Nicholas;	Collection Title:	Policy, Research working paper ; no. WPS 2433
Date Stored:	2000/09/30	Document Date:	2000/09/30
Document Type:	Policy Research Working Paper	Language:	English
Major Sector:	(Historic)Multisector	Report Number:	WPS2433
Sub Sectors:	Non-Sector Specific	SubTopics:	Children and Youth; Social Conflict and Violence; Peace & Peacekeeping; International Affairs; Post Conflict Reconstruction
Volume No:	1

Summary: The authors combine an empirical model of external intervention, with a theoretical model of civil war duration. Their empirical model of intervention allows them to analyze civil war duration, using "expected" rather than "actual" external intervention as an explanatory variable in the duration model. Unlike previous studies, they find that external intervention is positively associated with the duration of civil war. They distinguish partial third-party interventions that extend the length of war, from multilateral "peace" operations, which have a mandate to restore peace without taking sides - and which typically take place at war's end, or at least when both sides have agreed to a cease-fire. In a future paper, the authors will examine whether partial third-party interventions - whatever their effect on a war's duration - increase the risk of war's recurrence. If that proves true, then even if interventions reduce the length of civil war, they may do so at the cost of further destabilizing the political system, and sowing the seeds of future rebellion.


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	PDF 19 pages	WPS2433	0.12

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