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Latin America and the Caribbean as tailwinds recede : in search of higher growth, Volume 1
Author:de la Torre, Augusto; Yeyati, Eduardo Levy; Country:Latin America; Caribbean;
Date Stored:2013/04/26Document Date:2013/04/23
Document Type:PublicationSubTopics:Economic Theory & Research; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Emerging Markets; Debt Markets; Economic Conditions and Volatility
Region:Latin America & CaribbeanReport Number:77024
Volume No:1  

Summary: Economic and financial news in the past six months point to a softening of the formidable tailwinds that facilitated the achievement of high growth with social equity in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) over the past decade. The developed world seems to have arrived to a much debated new normal of excess liquidity, uninspiring growth (particularly in Europe), and stubbornly high public debt, even as the probability of a systemic event that would dislocate the global financial and economic dynamics has been, if not eliminated, at least postponed, due to the proactive action by major monetary authorities. Using an index that combines the three key exogenous drivers of LAC's growth, the author estimates that whereas the strong winds of the recent past were consistent with average growth rates in LAC of 5 to 6 percent, the now receding tailwinds are, in the absence of growth oriented reforms, consistent with an average growth around of 3.5 percent. This semiannual report examines the short and medium-term challenges for (LAC) as the external factors that were instrumental in the region’s recent performance recede. As is customary in this series, chapter one starts by providing an overview of the global economy and its implications for the short and medium-term prospects of the LAC region. Chapter two provides a detailed analysis of the general patterns of domestic demand and supply observed in LAC over the last decade.

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