Click here for search results
Infrastructure for growth and human development in Pakistan : a simulation analysis of fiscal policy options
 
Author:Kinnunen, Jouko; Lofgren, Hans; Collection Title:Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 6554
Country:Pakistan; Date Stored:2013/08/01
Document Date:2013/08/01Document Type:Policy Research Working Paper
SubTopics:Economic Theory & Research; Emerging Markets; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Debt Markets; Banks & Banking ReformLanguage:English
Major Sector:Education; Public Administration, Law, and Justice; Health and other social services; Finance; Industry and tradeRel. Proj ID:PK-Cem-Towards Accelerating Growth -- -- P117538;
Region:South AsiaReport Number:WPS6554
Sub Sectors:Health; General education sector; General finance sector; General industry and trade sector; General public administration sectorVolume No:1 of 1

Summary: This paper explores the use of fiscal policy to accelerate development in Pakistan during the period 2013-2022, with a focus on the creation of fiscal space for increased investment in infrastructure, as well as on indicators related to macro and sectoral developments, Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), and education. In terms of method, the analysis relies on simulations with a Pakistani version of MAMS (Maquette for MDG Simulations), a Computable General Equilibrium model developed at the World Bank for country strategy analysis. The different policy scenarios point to the importance of selecting infrastructure projects with high productivity effects and the crucial role of financing in determining the net effects of expanded government infrastructure spending. Transfer programs can generate immediate welfare gains but are less effective over time unless they are designed to raise productivity, perhaps via improvements in health, nutrition, and education outcomes. A final high-growth scenario explores requirements and consequences for Pakistan's economy if, during the period 2013-2022, it managed to raise its rate of annual GDP growth from the 4-5 percent range to 7 percent. The results for the final scenario indicate that rapid growth acceleration may be achieved via a combination of strong increases in savings, investment and total factor productivity. By 2022, 10 years of growth at a rate of 7 percent would spread across the macro demand indicators as well as the major production sectors. Its effects would include significant, broader gains in terms of poverty reduction and better outcomes for indicators.

Official Documents
Official, scanned versions of documents (may include signatures, etc.)
File TypeDescriptionFile Size (mb)
PDF 45 pagesOfficial version*3.15 (approx.)
TextText version**
How To Order

See documents related to this project
* The official version is derived from scanning the final, paper copy of the document and is the official,
archived version including all signatures, charts, etc.
** The text version is the OCR text of the final scanned version and is not an accurate representation of the final text.
It is provided solely to benefit users with slow connectivity.



Permanent URL for this page: http://go.worldbank.org/LC3BD9KL60