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Emerging economies, trade policy, and macroeconomic shocks, Volume 1
 
Author:Bown, Chad P.; Crowley, Meredith A.; Country:World;
Date Stored:2013/01/15Document Date:2013/01/01
Document Type:Policy Research Working PaperSubTopics:Currencies and Exchange Rates; Economic Theory & Research; Emerging Markets; Free Trade; Debt Markets
Language:EnglishMajor Sector:Industry and trade
Rel. Proj ID:1W-Market Access Research -- -- P111070;Region:The World Region
Report Number:WPS6315Sub Sectors:Other domestic and international trade
Collection Title:Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 6315Volume No:1

Summary: This paper estimates the impact of aggregate fluctuations on the time-varying trade policies of thirteen major emerging economies over 1989-2010; by 2010, these WTO member countries collectively accounted for 21 percent of world merchandise imports and 22 percent of world GDP. The paper examines determinants of carefully constructed, bilateral measures of new import restrictions on products arising through the temporary trade barrier (TTB) policies of antidumping, safeguards, and countervailing duties. The paper presents evidence of a counter-cyclical relationship between macroeconomic shocks and new TTB import restrictions as well as an important role for fluctuations in bilateral real exchange rates. Furthermore, the trade policy responsiveness coinciding with WTO establishment in 1995 suggests a significant change relative to the pre-WTO period; i.e., new import restrictions became more counter-cyclical and sensitive to real exchange rate shocks over time. Finally, the paper also presents results that explicitly address changes to the institutional environment facing these emerging economies as they joined the WTO and adopted disciplines to restrain their application of other trade policies such as applied import tariffs.

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