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Forecasting migrant remittances during the global financial crisis
 
Author:Mohapatra, Sanket; Ratha, Dilip; Collection Title:Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5512
Country:World; Date Stored:2010/12/30
Document Date:2010/12/01Document Type:Policy Research Working Paper
Language:EnglishRegion:The World Region
Report Number:WPS5512SubTopics:Remittances; Currencies and Exchange Rates; Emerging Markets; Debt Markets; Agriculture and Farming Systems
Volume No:1 of 1  

Summary: The financial crisis has highlighted the need for forecasts of remittance flows in many developing countries where these flows have proved to be a lifeline to the poor people and the economy. This note describes a simple methodology for forecasting country-level remittance flows in a manner consistent with the medium-term outlook for the global economy. Remittances are assumed to depend on bilateral migration stocks and income levels in the host country and the origin country. Changes in remittance costs, shifts in remittance channels, global exchange rate movements, and unpredictable immigration controls in the migrant-destination countries pose risks to the forecasts. Much remains to be done to improve the forecast methodology, data on bilateral flows, and high-frequency monitoring of migration and remittance flows.

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