Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries : how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design ?, Vol. 1 of 1

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Eliciting probabilistic expectations with visual aids in developing countries : how sensitive are answers to variations in elicitation design ?

Author:	Delavande, Adeline; Gine, Xavier; McKenzie, David;	Collection Title:	Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5458
Country:	World;	Date Stored:	2010/10/25
Document Date:	2010/10/01	Document Type:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English	Region:	The World Region
Report Number:	WPS5458	SubTopics:	Information Security & Privacy; Economic Theory & Research; Markets and Market Access; Crops and Crop Management Systems; Statistical & Mathematical Sciences
Volume No:	1 of 1

Summary: Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. The authors conducted an experiment in India that tested the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (pre-determined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. The results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracy.


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