Responding to threats of climate change mega-catastrophes, Vol. 1 of 1

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Responding to threats of climate change mega-catastrophes

Author:	Kousky, Carolyn; Rostapshova, Olga; Toman, Michael; Zeckhauser, Richard;	Collection Title:	Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5127
Country:	World;	Date Stored:	2009/11/12
Document Date:	2009/11/01	Document Type:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English	Region:	The World Region
Report Number:	WPS5127	SubTopics:	Transport and Environment; Climate Change Mitigation and Green House Gases; Climate Change Economics; Hazard Risk Management; Science of Climate Change
Volume No:	1 of 1

Summary: There is a low but uncertain probability that climate change could trigger "mega-catastrophes," severe and at least partly irreversible adverse effects across broad regions. This paper first discusses the state of current knowledge and the defining characteristics of potential climate change mega-catastrophes. While some of these characteristics present difficulties for using standard rational choice methods to evaluate response options, there is still a need to balance the benefits and costs of different possible responses with appropriate attention to the uncertainties. To that end, the authors present a qualitative analysis of three options for mitigating the risk of climate mega-catastrophes - drastic abatement of greenhouse gas emissions, development and implementation of geoengineering, and large-scale ex ante adaptation - against the criteria of efficacy, cost, robustness, and flexibility. They discuss the composition of a sound portfolio of initial investments in reducing the risk of climate change mega-catastrophes.


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