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Hidden impact ? Ex-post evaluation of an anti-poverty program, Volume 1
Author:Chen, Shaohua; Ravallion, Martin; Date Stored:2003/06/06
Document Date:2003/05/31Document Type:Policy Research Working Paper
SubTopics:Poverty Monitoring & Analysis; Environmental Economics & Policies; Economic Theory & Research; Inequality; Health Economics & Finance; Poverty Impact EvaluationLanguage:English
Report Number:WPS3049Sub Sectors:Other social services
Collection Title:Policy, Research working paper series ; no. WPS 3049Volume No:1

Summary: By the widely used difference-in-difference method, the Southwest China Poverty Reduction Project had little impact on the proportion of people in beneficiary villages consuming less than $1 a day-despite a public outlay of $400 million. Is that right, or is the true impact being hidden somehow? The authors find that impact estimates are quite sensitive to the choice of outcome indicator, the poverty line, and the matching method. There are larger poverty impacts at lower poverty lines. And there are much larger impacts on incomes than consumptions. Uncertainty about the impact probably made it hard for participants to infer the gain in permanent income, so they saved a high proportion of the short-term gain.

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