Aggregate agricultural supply response in developing countries : a survey of selected issues

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Aggregate agricultural supply response in developing countries : a survey of selected issues, Volume 1

Author:	Schiff, Maurice; Montenegro, Claudio E.;	Collection Title:	Policy, Research working paper ; no. WPS 1485
Date Stored:	1995/07/01	Document Date:	1995/07/31
Document Type:	Policy Research Working Paper	Language:	English
Major Sector:	Agriculture, fishing, and forestry	Report Number:	WPS1485
Sub Sectors:	Other Agriculture	SubTopics:	Environmental Economics & Policies; Payment Systems & Infrastructure; Economic Theory & Research; Markets and Market Access; Inequality; Labor Policies; Access to Markets
Volume No:	1

Summary: The authors review several studies of the aggregate agricultural supply response. Using both economic and econometric reasons, they argue that time series estimation typically generates a downward-biased estimate of the response to a credible reform. Even though time series estimates can provide an accurate picture of past behavoiral relations, they do not provide an adequate basis for forecasting the impact of policy reform. This is especially true in developing countries, where policy reforms involve large changes and have included agricultural price reform, industrial trade liberalization, financial sector reform, and macroeconomic stabilization. Under those circumstances, parameters values obtained under the former policy regime have little relevance in the new regime. The authors also argue that investment in public goods should be viewed as complementary to, not competitive with, price policy. They claim that to select the policy with the biggest impact on output makes no sense. They provide what they consider to be better criteria for choosing the best from alternative policies.


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	PDF 32 pages	WPS1485	1.16

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