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Aggregate agricultural supply response in developing countries : a survey of selected issues, Volume 1
Author:Schiff, Maurice; Montenegro, Claudio E.; Date Stored:1995/07/01
Document Date:1995/07/31Document Type:Policy Research Working Paper
SubTopics:Environmental Economics & Policies; Payment Systems & Infrastructure; Economic Theory & Research; Markets and Market Access; Inequality; Labor Policies; Access to MarketsLanguage:English
Major Sector:Agriculture, fishing, and forestryReport Number:WPS1485
Sub Sectors:Other AgricultureCollection Title:Policy, Research working paper ; no. WPS 1485
Volume No:1  

Summary: The authors review several studies of the aggregate agricultural supply response. Using both economic and econometric reasons, they argue that time series estimation typically generates a downward-biased estimate of the response to a credible reform. Even though time series estimates can provide an accurate picture of past behavoiral relations, they do not provide an adequate basis for forecasting the impact of policy reform. This is especially true in developing countries, where policy reforms involve large changes and have included agricultural price reform, industrial trade liberalization, financial sector reform, and macroeconomic stabilization. Under those circumstances, parameters values obtained under the former policy regime have little relevance in the new regime. The authors also argue that investment in public goods should be viewed as complementary to, not competitive with, price policy. They claim that to select the policy with the biggest impact on output makes no sense. They provide what they consider to be better criteria for choosing the best from alternative policies.

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