Policy options for meeting the Millennium Development Goals in Brazil : can micro-simulations help?

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Policy options for meeting the Millennium Development Goals in Brazil : can micro-simulations help?, Volume 1

Author:	Ferreira, Francisco H. G.; Leite, Phillippe G.;	Collection Title:	Policy, Research working paper series ; no. WPS 2975
Country:	Brazil;	Date Stored:	2003/04/04
Document Date:	2003/02/28	Document Type:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English	Major Sector:	(Historic)Sector not applicable
Region:	Latin America & Caribbean	Report Number:	WPS2975
Sub Sectors:	(Historic)Sector not applicable	SubTopics:	Environmental Economics & Policies; Achieving Shared Growth; Governance Indicators; Poverty Assessment; Health Monitoring & Evaluation; Inequality; Services & Transfers to Poor; Health Economics & Finance; Public Health Promotion
Volume No:	1

Summary: The authors investigate whether micro-simulation techniques can shed light on the types of policies that should be adopted by countries wishing to meet their Millennium Development Goals. They compare two families of micro-simulations. The first family of micro-simulations decomposes required poverty changes into a change in the mean and a reduction in inequality. Although it highlights the importance of inequality reduction, it appears to be too general to be of much use for policymaking. The second family of micro-simulations is based on a richer model of behavior in the labor markets. It points to the importance of combining different policy options, such as educational expansion and targeted conditional redistribution schemes, to ensure that the poorest people in society are successfully reached. But the absence of market equilibria in these statistical models, as well as the strong stability assumptions which are implicit in their use, argue for extreme caution in their interpretation.


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