Global imbalances before and after the global crisis, Vol. 1 of 1

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Global imbalances before and after the global crisis

Author:	Serven, Luis; Nguyen, Ha;	Collection Title:	Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5354
Country:	World;	Date Stored:	2010/06/29
Document Date:	2010/06/01	Document Type:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English	Major Sector:	Finance
Rel. Proj ID:	1W-Capital Flows And Financial Integration -- -- P053639;	Region:	The World Region
Report Number:	WPS5354	Sub Sectors:	General finance sector
SubTopics:	Currencies and Exchange Rates; Emerging Markets; Economic Theory & Research; Debt Markets; Investment and Investment Climate	TF No/Name:	TF040198-WORLD:; TF040145-WORLD:; TF090949-KCP HOW DO INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS MANAGE WORLD SAVINGS?
Volume No:	1 of 1

Summary: This paper surveys the academic and policy debate on the roots of global imbalances, their role in the inception of the global crisis, and their prospects in its aftermath. The conventional view holds that global imbalances result primarily from unsustainably high demand for goods in the United States and other rich countries, and that their impending correction must involve major United States trade adjustment and dollar depreciation -- although recent literature argues that their extent may be dampened by financial adjustment effects. In contrast, an alternative view portrays global imbalances as the equilibrium result of asymmetries in world asset demand and supply. Absent changes in the deep determinants of these, global imbalances can persist. International capital flow patterns before and during the crisis lend support to the equilibrium view. The paper also examines different hypotheses proposed in the literature on the role of global imbalances in the generation and propagation of the financial crisis. On the whole, the evidence suggests that global imbalances were not among the major causes of the crisis. Lastly, the paper assesses alternative scenarios about the future of global imbalances, considering in particular their potential consequences for developing countries, and the policy measures that these might adopt to enhance their growth prospects in a changing global equilibrium.


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