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Lock-in effects of road expansion on CO2 emissions : results from a core-periphery model of Beijing

Author:	Anas, Alex; Timilsina, Govinda R.;	Collection Title:	Policy Research working paper ; no. WPS 5017Paper is funded by the Knowledge for Change Program (KCP)
Country:	China;	Date Stored:	2009/08/11
Document Date:	2009/08/01	Document Type:	Policy Research Working Paper
Language:	English	Major Sector:	Energy and mining
Rel. Proj ID:	1W-International & National Climate Mitigation -- -- P084595;	Region:	East Asia and Pacific
Report Number:	WPS5017	Sub Sectors:	General energy sector
SubTopics:	Environment and Energy Efficiency; Transport Economics Policy & Planning; Energy and Environment; Economic Theory & Research; Urban Transport; Roads & Highways	TF No/Name:	TF054654-KCP
Volume No:	1 of 1

Summary: In the urban planning literature, it is frequently explicitly asserted or strongly implied that ongoing urban sprawl and decentralization can lead to development patterns that are unsustainable in the long run. One manifestation of such an outcome is that if extensive road investments occur, urban sprawl and decentralization are advanced and locked-in, making subsequent investments in public transit less effective in reducing vehicle kilometers traveled by car, gasoline use and carbon dioxide emissions. Using a simple core-periphery model of Beijing, the authors numerically assess this effect. The analysis confirms that improving the transit travel time in Beijingﾒs core would reduce the cityﾒs overall carbon dioxide emissions, whereas the opposite would be the case if peripheral road capacity were expanded. This effect is robust to perturbations in the modelﾒs calibrated parameters. In particular, the effect persists for a wide range of assumptions about how location choice depends on travel time and a wide range of assumptions about other aspects of consumer preferences.


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