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DECRG Workshop: Climate Change and Agricultural Trade: Risks and Responses

Sponsor: Development Economics and Chief Economist (DEC)

Summary:

The event will highlight the effects of climate change on agricultural sustainability and safety, and agricultural trade trends between developed and developing countries, with a focus on standards and regulatory systems as they relate to animal, plant, and human safety.

The first day of the two-day event will look more generally at the effects of climate change on agriculture sustainability and impacts this will have on global trade flows and poverty.

The second day will take a more technical approach to analyzing the specific sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) risks associated with climate change in the developing world. 

Agenda:

Tuesday, September 22nd
9:00 - 9:15 a.m.Opening Remarks

Ann Harrison, Research Manager, Trade and International Integration, Development Research Group, World Bank

Gretchen Stanton, Senior Counsellor, Agricultural and Commodities Division, World Trade Organization

9:15 - 11:00 a.m.

How Do Climate Change, Poverty, and Trade Relate?

Chair: Ann Harrison, Research Manager, Trade and International Integration, Development Research Group, World Bank

This session will examine how agricultural trade policy reform can mitigate the poverty effects of climate change in the developing world. The impact of increases in global food prices and agricultural productivity losses as they relate to rural poverty will be examined. Finally, new detailed analysis that simulates the effects of agricultural protection on trade flows in the face of climate change will be presented.

S. Amer Ahmed, Rural Development, Development Research Group, World Bank

William Martin, Manager, Rural Development, Development Research Group, World Bank

Gerald Nelson, Senior Research Fellow, Int’l Food Policy Research Institute

11:15 - 12:30

Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Trade Trends and the Resulting Political-Economic Effects

Chair: Bernard Hoekman, Director, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Unit - Trade Department, World Bank
   
This session will highlight the link between climate change, and effects on agricultural trade and the political-economic consequences of these impacts.   Analysis of modelling climate change impacts and mitigation options will be discussed in regard to changes in trade flows between the developed and developing economies. The differing regional impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity will be presented, as will possible effects on the sectoral composition of economies around the world. Emphasis will be placed on the possibility that large developing countries (i.e.: China, India) will have to significantly increase imports from developed markets.  The implications this many have on trade policies and sectors (i.e.: manufacturing, services etc.) will also be addressed.
    
Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Lead Economist, Development Prospects Group, World Bank

2:00 - 3:30 p.m.The Legal Framework for Food Safety in a Changing Global Climate 

Chair: John S. Wilson, Lead Economist, Development Research Group, Trade and International Integration, World Bank
 
This session will address the current state of international legal frameworks as they relate to climate change and food safety.  It will survey adaptations to current legal and standards frameworks that will likely be necessary to deal with the effects of climate change in regions of the world that are likely to be the most heavily affected.    An overview of relevant World Trade Organization case study law in this area will be presented as a part of this discussion.

Caoimhín MacMaoláin, Lecturer in Law, Trinity College 

Gary Hufbauer, Senior Fellow, Peterson Institute

4:00 - 5:30 p.m. Moving Forward: The Operational and Research Agenda

Chair: Michael A. Toman, Research Manager, Development Economics Research Group, World Bank

This session will discuss ongoing climate change research and adaptation programs currently in progress.  Policy reform and adaptation programs will be discussed within the context of their implications for global trade flows, trade facilitation activities in developing economies, and the need for new international standards and regulatory regimes.  This session will also address methods used by Bank operational staff to conduct economic assessments of potential adaptation investments in agriculture.  Knowledge gaps in existing research and ways by which to enhance the future research agenda on trade and climate change will also be discussed in this closing session of the event’s first day.

Alejandro Deeb, Environmental Specialist, SustainableDevelopment, Latin America & Caribbean, World Bank

Ann Tutwiler, Senior Advisor, Research, Education, and Economics, U.S. Department of Agriculture

 

Wednesday, September 23rd
9:30 - 11:00 a.m.

Implications of Climate Change for SPS Risks
Chair: Marlynne Hopper, STDF Secretariat
 
This session will highlight studies on the expected effects of climate change on the evolution of plant and animal pests/disease and food-borne disease etc., as well as the uncertainties inherent in the prediction models.  Evidence regarding the potential implications of these changed health risks on animal and crop production and trade, as well as on food safety risks, will be presented, and the gaps in knowledge highlighted.  
 
Renata Clarke, Food Quality and Standards Service (AGNS), FAO

Peter F. Black, Principal Research Scientist, Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry / OIE Rapporteur for the Technical Session on Climate Change

Matthew Ayres, Dartmouth University

11:15 - 12:30 p.m. 

Addressing SPS Risks Related to Climate Change
Chair: Julian Smith, The Food and Environment Research Agency, UK
 
This session will examine the range and types of measures, which are considered necessary to control these risks, especially for developing countries, and make recommendations in the regard. Members of the panel will provide comments on the presentations delivered during the previous session, followed by open discussion. 
 
John S. Wilson, Lead Economist, Development Research Group, Trade and International Integration, World Bank
 
Stéphane Forman, Livestock Specialist, Agriculture and Rural Development Department of the Africa Region World Bank

Allen Auclair, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture

Bryan Dierlam, Director, Federal Government Relations, Cargill

2:00 - 3:30 p.m.

Future Needs in SPS Technical  Cooperation
Chair: Jean Kamanzi, Senior Livestock Specialist, World Bank
 
This session will look into technical assistance needs in food safety, animal and plant health.  It will identify future research required to generate the data for prediction of the impacts of disease/pest evolution on development and trade.  It will identify needs of developing countries for capacity to cope with emerging risks and diseases.  
 
Jaime Cardenas, Instituto Colombiano Agropecuario (ICA), Colombia

Richard Sikora, Chairman, CGIAR Systemwide Programme on Integrated Pest Management (SP-IPM), University of Bonn 

Dr. Kerstin Silvestre Garcia, GTZ

3:45 - 5:15 p.m.  Mainstreaming Climate Change and SPS in Policy-Making
Chair: Steve Jaffee, Lead Economist, World Bank

This session will focus on how climate change and related SPS problems can be tackled at policy level, with examples from countries that have established multidisciplinary dialogues at national level to ensure that integrated approaches are taken for adaptation. Information will also be provided on programmes and actions taken at regional/international levels to facilitate strategic planning and policy-making in the area of adaptation to climate change.
 
Michael Scannell, Adviser to Director of the Animal Health and Animal Welfare Directorate, DG SANCO, European Commission

Ian D. Campbell, Director, Integrated Natural Resources, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

5:15 - 5:30 p.m.  Concluding Remarks
World Bank and STDF Secretariat
Relevant Documents

 

 
For Information: Benjamin J. Taylor



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