Impact and Adaptation to Climate Change
|This World Bank research focuses on climate-agriculture-poverty nexus and ways to assess impacts and adaptation. This project focuses on the poverty impact of changing climate volatility in Southern and Eastern Africa.|
Contacts: William Martin, email@example.com
| Researchers | Related Links | Research Outputs |
Agriculture is particularly sensitive to climate volatility, and as the frequency and intensity of climate extremes increase, crop production damages from such events will change. Recent studies have highlighted the significant impact that extreme climate events may have on the agricultural output in the tropics and subtropics and subsequently on food security in developing countries. The poor are particularly sensitive to changes in the agricultural sector, both because the majority of the poor rely---either directly or indirectly---on agriculture for their livelihood, and because they spend a large share of their income on food.
This project examines the poverty impact of changing climate volatility primarily in Southern and Eastern Africa, as well as the wider developing world. It integratings climate analyses from general circulation models with statistical analyses of agricultural response and economic simulation modeling to present integrated analyses of the response of poor communities to changes in climate volatility. It will also explore the potential for government policies to focus attention on the lower tails of these poverty distributions. Such analyses will be new not only for Africa, but also for other regions of the world.
Thus, in order to develop policies and infrastructure to cope with increased frequency of extreme climate events, we must understand
- how global warming affects climate volatility (both globally and locally)
- how changes in climate volatility affect agricultural output (as well as other economic opportunities, including trade and migration)
- and how all of these changes affect poverty.
| Related Links|
| Research Outputs|
“Climate volatility deepens poverty vulnerability in developing countries,” S. A. Ahmed, N.S. Diffenbaugh, and T.W. Hertel, Environmental Research Letters 4/034004, 2009.
Extreme climate events could influence poverty by affecting agricultural productivity and
raising prices of staple foods that are important to poor households in developing countries.
With the frequency and intensity of extreme climate events predicted to change in the future,
informed policy design and analysis requires an understanding of which countries and groups
are going to be most vulnerable to increasing poverty. Using a novel economic-climate analysis
framework, we assess the poverty impacts of climate volatility for seven socio-economic groups
in 16 developing countries. We find that extremes under present climate volatility increase
poverty across our developing country sample—particularly in Bangladesh, Mexico, Indonesia,
and Africa—with urban wage earners the most vulnerable group. We also find that global
warming exacerbates poverty vulnerability in many nations.
|World Bank Policy Research Working Papers |
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The following policy research working papers are drawn from the World Bank's institutional archives. Each link opens a page with an abstract of the document and several download options. Search all Working Papers
|WPS6262||The cost structure of the clean development mechanism||Rahman, Shaikh M.; Larson, Donald F.; Dinar, Ariel||2012/11|
|WPS6188||Climate change, agriculture and food security in Tanzania||Arndt, Channing; Farmer, William; Strzepek, Kenneth; Thurlow, James||2012/09|
|WPS6080||Aligning climate change mitigation and agricultural policies in Eastern Europe and Central Asia||Larson, Donald F.; Dinar, Ariel; Blankespoor, Brian||2012/06|
|WPS5239||Will the clean development mechanism mobilize anticipated levels of mitigation ?||Rahman, Shaikh M.; Dinar, Ariel; Larson, Donald F.||2010/03|
|WPS5117||Climate volatility and poverty vulnerability in Tanzania||Ahmed , Syud Amer; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Hertel , Thomas W.; Lobell, David B.; Ramankutty, Navin; Rios, Ana R.; Rowhani, Pedram||2009/11||