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Scientific evidence suggests that growth of greenhouse gas emissions and associated global warming could well enhance sea level rise (SLR) by more than one meter this century. A rapid breakup of the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets might produce a five-meter SLR, but the probability of this taking place within the current century is not high.
A recent study1 assessed the consequences of continued SLR for 84 developing countries on land, population, agriculture, urban extent, wetlands, and GDP. Results indicate that tens of millions of people in the developing world may be displaced by SLR within this century; and the accompanying economic and ecological damage will be severe for many.
At the country level, results are extremely skewed, with severe impacts limited to a relatively small number of countries. For these countries (e.g., Vietnam, Bangladesh, Egypt, the Bahamas), however, the consequences of SLR are potentially catastrophic. For many others, including some of the largest (e.g., China), the absolute magnitudes of potential impacts are very large.
Note
1. Dasgupta, Susmita, Benoit Laplante, Craig Meisner, David Wheeler, Jianping Yan, The Impact of Sea-Level Rise on Developing Countries: A Comparative Analysis. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4136 (see Library).
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