Author: Govinda R. Timilsina and Somchai Jitsuchon
Citation: Not yet available
Title: Economic Impacts of Low Carbon Growth Scenarios in Selected Developing Countries (Thailand Case Study)
The role of developing countries is very important in dealing with global climate change because even the full elimination of developed country emissions would not avoid global warming. While the industrialized countries are urging big emitting developing countries (e.g., China, India) to enter into mandatory targets to reduce their GHG emissions, they are arguing against any quantified commitments in the near future. This issue is at the heart of the ongoing negotiations. One approach that developing countries are currently exploring is the implementation of GHG mitigation activities that do not impede their expected economic growth (i.e., pursue a strategy of low carbon economic growth) or implementation of so called win-win options for GHG mitigation. The WBG has launched studies in the six big emitting client countries (e.g., China, India, Mexico, Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia) to identify options for low carbon growth. While these studies are at different levels of development, none of these studies are expected to answer the following questions: (i) what level of GHG mitigation can these and other developing countries achieve without slowing down their expected economic growth? and how much would this mitigation contribute in meeting the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC? (ii) Even if the low carbon growth scenarios do not harm expected economic growth, how fair are they from a social perspective? Do these scenarios reduce income inequality and poverty? How would these scenarios impact low income households? (iii) If the win-win or low carbon growth scenarios do not result in significant contributions in meeting the ultimate objective of the UNFCCC, what would be economic impacts of more stringent measures to reduce GHG emissions? How would such measures impact the economic growth, income distribution and poverty? (iv) How would these results change if climate change adaptation is also taken into consideration? Answering these questions is enormously important to client countries in defining their short and long-term strategies to address the global climate change.