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Economic Implications of Moving Toward Global Convergence on Emission Intensities

Economic Implications of Moving Toward Global Convergence on Emission Intensities

By Govinda Timilsina

Chair: Jon Strand, DECEE

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

12:30-2:00 pm



A contentious issue in climate change negotiations is the large difference in per-capita CO2 emission between industrialized countries and other nations. We here study the costs of reducing this gap, using a global computable general equilibrium model. We find that CO2 intensity of industrialized countries would remain almost twoce the average level for other countries by 2030, even with a uniform carbon tax of $250/ton CO2 in the former group, reducing its emmissions by 57%. Global emissions would then fall by only 17% due to emissions increases in other countries, which may be insufficient to avoid dangerous climate change by 2050 and beyond. This tax would reduce Annex 1's GDP by 2.4%, and global trade by 2%. The economic costs of the tax would vary widely by country, with heavier burdens on fossil-intensive economies including Russia, Australia, and the U.S..  

Bio, Govinda Timilsina:

Govinda Timilsina is a Senior Research Economist in the Development Research Group of the World Bank. He has more than 17 years experience across a broad range of energy and climate change economics issues at the international level, and is widely published in these fields.  His key expertise includes policy modeling; climate change analysis; and energy sector analysis. Prior to joining the World Bank, he was a Senior Research Director at the Canadian Energy Research Institute, in Calgary, Canada. Currently Govinda is working on the economics of biofuels, low-carbon economic growth, and clean energy technologies.

For further information on the presentation, contact Jon Strand at:, 202-458-5122

The Joint Bank-Fund Brown-Bag Research Seminars on Environment and Energy is a joint initiative between the Development Research Group, Environment and Energy Team (DECEE), World Bank, and the Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF. Organizers of the series are Jon Strand (DECEE), and Ruud de Mooij and Ian Parry (FAD/IMF). The seminars are held at lunch time, normally once every two weeks, alternately in the Bank and Fund. Aims of the seminars are to raise attention to, and interest in, environment, energy and natural resources issues in both institutions; to promote the interaction between the two institutions in these fields; and to improve the institutions' common work on policy.



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