The Economics of Conflict

The Development Economics Research Group at the World Bank has been involved in research on the economic causes and consequences of conflict for nearly a decade.  This research began with a research project on the Economics of Civil War, Crime and Violence (1999 to 2002).  It continues  with research on Post-Conflict Transitions, which explores the intersection of political, security and economic dimensions of post-conflict development.  This project culminated in a conference on the research results in Washington D.C. at the end of April 2007. 

COUNTRIES EMERGING FROM CONFLICT: NEW RESEARCH ON WHAT SUSTAINS PEACE

Slideshow Summary of Research May 2007 Conference on post-conflict transitions Featured article                                 Countries recovering from conflict must receive well-planned assistance to promote economic growth and stable government, that is capable of providing essential services, and to avoid slipping back into civil or external war. But an overwhelming 40 percent of these states do slide back into conflict within just ten years. To help countries escape this conflict trap, the development community needs to adjust assistance policies based on the latest research, as well as country-specific analysis. Highlights from a World Bank conflict research project undertaken with the International Peace Research Institute of Oslo and the Center for the Study of African Economies at Oxford (presented at an April 30 - May 1 conference in Washington DC) include  various steps that countries and donors need to take to establish the right macroeconomic agenda and build the foundation of lasting peace.

Post-Conflict Transitions:  Political Institutions, Development and a Domestic Civil Peace

In 2005, following on the success of the Economics of Civil War project, the World Bank launched the Post-Conflict Transitions research project, funded by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs  through the Knowledge for Change Program.  This research project carries previous successes forward, not only thematically through continuing research on the post-conflict experience, but also operationally, by further developing and strengthening a network of scholars, researchers and policymakers involved in conflict. It consists of collaborative research from three groups of researchers at the World Bank Development Economics Research Group, (DEC-RG), the International Peace Research Institute of Oslo (PRIO) and the Center for the Study of African Economies (CSAE). This project is under the overall direction of Ibrahim Elbadawi, Lead Economist (DEC-RG) and administered by Gary Milante. The PRIO component is coordinated by Håvard Hegre and the CSAE component is coordinated by Paul Collier.  On the operations side, the project is working with policymakers within the Bank in various regions, the Conflict Prevention and Reconstruction Unit (CPR) and the Low Income Countries Under Stress Initiative (LICUS) and partners at the United Nations Development Program (UNDP).

The project advances the Post-Conflict research agenda (see About the Program) and continues the investigation of risks and costs of conflict begun in the previous project through more than 25 research papers and case studies.  These results contribute to our better understanding of post-conflict development, the obstacles to effective development and the possible steps that international organizations like the World Bank can take to overcome these obstacles.

As finished papers become available they are added to the Working Papersand Sub-topicssections of the project website.  Overviews of the first workshop, held at Oxford, November 10-12, 2005 and the second workshop hosted by PRIO, June 19-20, 2006 in Oslo are available in the Archived Eventssection.  Further questions and inquiries on the project should be addressed to Gary Milante.

Economics of Civil War, Crime and Violence

In 1999, in recognition of the devastating economic consequences of violence in developing countries, the World Bank launched a large research program in the Development Economics Research Group (DEC-RG) to study “The Economics of Civil War, Crime and Violence.”  The project was co-managed by Paul Collier, director (DECRG), and Ibrahim Elbadawi, lead economist (DECRG).  The project team included a core staff of Norman Loayza (lead economist, lead of the criminal violence component), Håvard Hegre, Marta Reynal-Querol and Nicholas Sambanis.

The 'About' page includes a detailed overview of the findings of the project.  The 'Working Papers' page lists all of the studies produced by the project. The studies are also organized under separate 'Sub-topics'.

Though this research program is no longer active, the findings of the project continue to inspire academic dialogue and inform policy.  Multiple books and policy reports including Understanding Civil Warand Breaking The Conflict Traphave been released elaborating upon the results of the project.  The Post-Conflict Transitions project continues this analysis with research on the post-conflict experience.