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Political Systems, Stability and Civil Wars

Title: Political Systems, Stability and Civil Wars
Author: Marta Reynal-Querol
Pub. Date: May 2, 2002
Full Text: Adobe Acrobat (PDF) [318 KB]

The paper analyzes theoretically and empirically the stability of the different political systems; that is, their ability to prevent conflict. According to the model in the paper, the proportional system has a lower probability of group rebellion than the majoritarian system. In the empirical part, it is shown that democracy by itself does not play an important explanatory role, while the specific type of political system - majoritarian, presidential or proportional - does. The rational of this result is that different political systems entail different opportunity costs of rebellion.




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