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On the Duration of Civil War

Title: On the Duration of Civil War
Måns Söderbom, Paul Collier, and Anke Hoeffler
Pub. Date: March 1, 2002
Full Text: Adobe Acrobat (PDF) [90 KB]   

Using economic data and data on ethnic diversity we examine the duration of civil war. We distinguish between three effects on duration: changes in the information set, the capacity to maintain military cohesion, and changes in the cost of warfare. We find that during the first year of a conflict there is a high chance of peace. The duration of conflict is determined quite differently from the risk of civil war.

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