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Emerging Economies Recovered Faster from the Financial Crisis

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Contrary to what many analysts find, emerging economies saw GDP and other key economic indicators collapse during the 2008-2009 global crisis at levels comparable to, or sometimes even more than, those in developed countries during the crisis, then recovered faster and more strongly than advanced economies. This is the key finding from a new working paper by Tatiana Didier, Constantino Hevia and Sergio Schmukler. The authors describe the cross-country incidence of the crisis and the post-crisis recovery, examining contractions in GDP as well as in industrial production. They examine key transmission channels and provide a simple econometric analysis of the cross-country correlates of growth collapses and recoveries. A key finding is that, unlike previous economic shocks, when emerging economies suffered larger collapses than developed countries did, emerging countries didn’t magnify the external shock, thanks to countercyclical policies. That seems to mark a structural break from the way emerging economies responded to negative shocks and crises in the past.

The working paper, which includes a foreword by Justin Yifu Lin, Chief Economist and Senior VP, can be accessed here.
Also see blog post (June 24, 2011) by Sergio Schmukler here.



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