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The Lost Decades: Developing Countries’ Stagnation in Spite of Policy Reform 1980-1998 Dataset

Authors:William R. Easterly
Topics:Macroeconomic & Economic Growth
Citation: 

The document in this paper a puzzle that has not received previous attention in the literature. In 1980-98, median per capita income growth in developing countries was 0.0 percent, as compared to 2.5 percent in 1960-79. Yet I document in this paper that variables that are standard in growth regressions -- policies like financial depth and real overvaluation, and initial conditions like health, education, fertility, and infrastructure generally improved from 1960-79 to 1980-98. Developing country growth should have increased instead of decreased according to the standard growth regression determinants of growth. The stagnation seems to represent a disappointing outcome to the movement towards the “Washington Consensus” by developing countries. I speculate that worldwide factors like the increase in world interest rates, the increased debt burden of developing countries, the growth slowdown in the industrial world, and skill-biased technical change may have contributed to the developing countries' stagnation, although I am not able to establish decisive evidence for these hypotheses. I also document that many growth regressions are mis-specified in a way similar to the Jones (1995) critique that a stationary variable (growth) is being regressed on non-stationary variables like policies and initial conditions. It may be that the 1960-79 period was the unusual period for LDC growth, and the 1980-98 stagnation of poor countries represents a return to the historical pattern of divergence between rich and poor countries.

Access to Dataset
  • Micro Time Series Excel File


  • Macro-2001 Executable File


  • Government Finance 2001 Executable File


  • Government Finance 2001 Excel File


  • Macro Time Series 2001 Excel File


  • Government Finance 2001 Zipped File


  • PDF file


  • Macro-2001 Zipped File





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