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Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks Dataset

Non-Bank Author:William Easterly, Michael Kremer, Lant Pritchett, and Lawrence H. Summers
Web Address:Macroeconomics and Growth
Topics:International Economics & Trade and Macroeconomic & Economic Growth

Easterly, William, Michael Kremer, Lant Pritchett, and Lawrence Summers' "Good Policy or Good Luck? Country Growth Performance and Temporary Shocks", Journal of Monetary Economics 32 (3): 459-83. 1993.

Abstract of Paper
Much of the new growth literature stresses country characteristics, such as education levels or political stability, as the dominant determinant of growth. However, growth rates are highly unstable over time, with a correlation across decades of 0.1 to 0.3, while country characteristics are highly stable, with cross-decade correlations of 0.6 to 0.9. Shocks, especially those to terms of trade, play a large role in explaining variance in growth. These findings suggest either that shocks are important relative to country characteristics in determining long-run growth, or that worldwide technological change determines long-run growth while country characteristics determine relative income levels.

The data is organized as a cross-section of 160 countries and is provided for three decades: 1960s, 1970s, and 1980s (1980-88). Occasionally when a variable is not provided for the 1960s it is because the 1960s values were not used in the paper. The country list is given after the description of variables.


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