Full Report: Capital for the Future: Saving and Investment in an Interdependent World Download PDF
Overview: Capital for the Future: Saving and Investment in an Interdependent World Download PDF
Chapter 1: The Emerging Pattern of Global Investment Download PDF
Chapter 2: Global Saving in 2030 Download PDF
Chapter 3: Capital Flows in the Third Age of Financial Globalization Download PDF
Annexes Download PDF
“Institutional and Structural Determinants of Investment Worldwide”,
Policy Research Working Paper
Lim, Jamus Jerome. 2013.
Abstract: This paper considers institutional and structural factors associated with investment activity in a panel of up to 129 developed and developing countries. We introduce these factors to a standard neoclassical investment function for open economies, and find that financial development and institutional quality are reasonably robust determinants of cross-country capital formation, with latter displaying more stability in the sign and significance of its coefficient. Indeed, when endogeneity concerns are addressed more explicitly using external instruments, and both interactions and subsamples are considered, institutional quality tends to survive as the causal determinant of investment.
“Structural Transformations and the Future of Saving and Investment",
Policy Research Working Paper
Bussolo, Maurizio, Jamus Jerome Lim, and Maryla Maliszewska. 2013.
Abstract: This paper examines the evolution of saving, investment, and associated capital flows in the context of impending changes in the socioeconomic structure of countries in the global economy. We build our baseline for the 2011--2030 period by considering how structural transformations along four dimensions---demographic trends, financial development, institutional quality, and social protection---interact with likely productivity and population paths to determine saving rates, investment rates, and capital flows for major economies and regions. Our main finding is that future global investment and saving rates will decline only slightly, although substantial heterogeneity exists at the country or regional level. We also consider a range of perturbations to the basic model and verify that the overall message of fairly limited changes in global investment and saving rates remains reasonably robust, even in a scenario of rapid global growth and structural change.
Mapping global gross capital flows through 2030*
Jonathon Adams-Kane and Yueqing Jia
Abstract: This paper documents the methodology behind the scenarios of gross capital inflows used in the projections in the report. A model of gross capital inflows across countries and time is estimated econometrically, and used to project gross capital inflows country by country (or residual region) to build a global picture of gross flows through 2030. We map the global pattern of gross capital flows under two scenarios, assuming different speeds of convergence for developing countries in terms of economic growth, financial market development, and integration. Under both scenarios---gradual and fast convergence---we project that, by 2030, developing countries will account for a significantly greater share of global gross capital inflows, and, by implication, outflows.