The World Bank's twice-yearly Global Economic Prospects examines growth trends for the global economy and how they affect developing countries. The reports include three-year forecasts for the global economy and long-term global scenarios which look ten years into the future. Topical annexes in this online publication cover financial markets, trade, commodities, and inflation.
Washington, DC, January 14, 2014 — Five years after the global financial crisis, the world economy is showing signs of bouncing back this year, pulled along by a recovery in high-income economies, says Global Economic Prospects (GEP), January 2014.
The report indicates that developing countries should prepare for a long period of volatility in the global economy by re-emphasizing medium-term development strategies, while preparing for tougher times.
The report indicates that developing countries should prepare for further downside risks, as Euro Area debt problems and weakening growth in several big emerging economies are dimming global growth prospects.
The report indicates that financial crisis for most developing countries is over. Efforts must now focus on tackling country-specific challenges such as achieving balanced growth through structural reforms, coping with inflationary pressures, and dealing with high commodity prices.
This report projects slower but still solid growth in 2011 and 2012, with developing countries contributing almost half of global growth. But the recovery in some high-income and emerging Europe and Central Asian economies is tentative.
Even as the world economic recovery continues to advance, it faces fresh headwinds on the road to sustainable medium term growth. The report warns that while the impact of the European debt crisis has so far been contained, it has the real potential to derail global growth.
While the worst of the financial crisis may be over, the global recovery is fragile. The report predicts that the fallout from the crisis will change the landscape for finance and growth over the next 10 years.
The world financial crisis has dimmed short-term prospects for developing countries and the volume of world trade is likely to contract for the first time since 1982. The sharp slowdown has caused commodity prices to plummet, ending a historic five-year boom.
Rapid technological progress in developing countries has helped to raise incomes and reduce the share of people living in absolute poverty from 29 percent in 1990 to 18 percent in 2004. Despite these gains, the technology gap between rich and poor countries remains enormous, and the capacity of developing economies to adopt new technology remains weak. Developing countries must improve their capacity to absorb and use technology.
Over the next 25 years developing countries will move to center stage in the global economy. Global Economic Prospects 2007 analyzes the opportunities - and stresses - this will create. While rich and poor countries alike stand to benefit, the integration process will make more acute stresses already apparent today - in income inequality, in labor markets, and in the environment.
This year’s edition of Global Economic Prospects focuses on the flow of international migrant remittances and improving their development impact. It presents available data on migration flows and examines current thinking on issues pertaining to migration and its development impact. The bulk of the book covers remittances, including their size, determinants, development impact, and steps to strengthen financial infrastructure and reduce transaction costs.
This report examines the proliferation of bilateral and regional preferential trading arrangements and what this means for the multilateral Doha trade negotiations. It tackles three main questions: What types of agreements help promote—and which ones impede—development? Do bilateral and regional agreements promote a deeper integration that the multilateral system cannot deliver on? Do they negatively impact a country’s incentive to engage in multilateral Doha trade talks?
The Doha Development Agenda of the Fourth Ministerial Conference of the WTO opened many contentious and important questions. This report analyzes the most critical multilateral trade issues and suggests policy options that would raise living standards in developing countries and reduce global poverty.
In the face of uncertainties in the global environment, the report outlines steps that can be adopted by rich and poor countries to increase growth rates and accelerate poverty reduction. Though global GDP is expected to rise by 2.5 percent in 2003 as a result of improved business health and policy stimulus in the U.S. and Europe, the chances of the world economy sliding toward recession are real. Regional variations in growth in developing countries are striking: 6.1 percent in East Asia compared to 1.8 percent in Latin America. The poverty targets are likely to be achieved by most regions, except for Africa which lags behind. .
This report reviews the global economic environment and its implications for the developing countries over the next decade. Realizing the promise of the new global initiatives to expand trade requires concerted effort to move development to center stage in trade policy formulation. This report is dedicated to that agenda. It begins with a review of global prospects and ways globalization links the fates of industrial and developing countries. The report then considers issues in four broad areas that are particularly important to developing countries: merchandise trade, services, transport, and intellectual property rights. A final chapter summarizes the forward-looking policy agenda, and assesses the potential impact of further global integration and more rapid growth for the standards of living in poor countries everywhere.
The global economy is likely approaching a cyclical high in 2000, while policy reforms and improvements in health and education in developing countries over the past decade have substantially increased their potential for long-term growth. However, volatility in the global economic environment presents major risks for developing countries that could depress prospects.
This report analyzes the prospects for the global economy and the implications for poverty reduction; reports on the enormous social impact of the crisis in the most affected countries; reviews progress in corporate and bank restructuring in the East Asian crisis countries; and traces the impact of volatile commodity prices on exporters of primary commodities.
This report analyzes future prospects for developing countries in the wake of the East Asian crisis; maps out policies to deal with crises once they erupt; and focuses on ways to prevent future crises on the scale of East Asia’s experience.