This monthly background note is prepared for review by the Bank's Short-term Risk Monitoring Group (STRMG), and later distributed to a wider internal Bank audience and the Board of Executive Directors. The note helps to keep readers informed on high-frequency developments in areas that are crucial for setting the global environment for growth among developing countries: | ² | The expansion of real side activity in the global economy continued through February (latest data), albeit at a different pace across regions. Global industrial production expanded at an annualized pace of 4.3 percent in the three months to February from 3.6 percent in January. This expansion in industrial production has been supported by the solid expansion in global trade that has been occurring since November 2012. Indeed, in February, the pace of expansion in global trade (14.6%, 3m/3m saar) was at about four times that of the expansion of industrial production. | | ² | After the strengthening of real-side activity observed in Q1 2013, the global economy is likely to hit a soft patch in Q2 2013. Weakening business sentiment indicators towards the end of March and in April suggest economic activity could be weaker in Q2 compared to the rebound in Q1. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the World Bank’s Global Purchasing Manager’ Index (PMI) fell in March to 50.8 (i.e. barely above the expansion threshold of 50) from its most recent post-rebound peak of 51.3 in January. | | ² | Financial markets have eased somewhat in recent weeks. Stock markets have been volatile in April, however in both the US, Germany and among developing countries, news of softening economic activity and earnings has led to a pull-back in stocks. After reaching fresh high’s in early April, US stocks have fallen by 0.5%. Germany’s DAX index is down 4.3% and the Emerging Market bench mark MSCI index is down some 2.2% in April. Japan, once again remains an exception as its monetary stimulus measures has led its TOPIX index to soar to a post-recession high (since mid-November, the index has surged some 60%, adding about $787 billion to the market valuation). | | ² | Weakening demand side pressures, as the global economy enters a soft patch, coupled with more favorable supply-side conditions are contributing to the broad decline in metals, oil and agricultural commodity prices. Since mid-February metal prices have been declining. Prices of tin, copper, nickel, and aluminum have declined by 17.4%, 15.4%, 13.8% and 10.3%, respectively, from their mid-February peaks to the 3rd week of April. Oil prices have also dropped (Brent by 18.1% and WTI by 9.5%) since mid-February. |
Full Issue 2013 2012  PDF Documents: | | | |  December 2012 (4,217 KB) | | November 2012 (3,558 KB) | October 2012 (2,480 KB) | | September 2012 (2,248 KB) | August 2012 (RECESS) | | July 2012 (1,531 KB) | June 2012 (1,365 KB) | | May 2012 (1,703 KB) | April 2012 (1,448 KB) | | March 2012 (1,362 KB) | February 2012 (1,013 KB) |
2011 | PDF Documents: |  Charts: (Excel)
| | September 2011 (786 KB) | September 2011 (1,598 KB) | | July 2011 (1.601 KB) | July 2011 (1,330 KB) | | June 2011 (1,632 KB) | June 2011 (1,331 KB) | | March 2011 (2,000 KB) | March 2011 (1,678 KB) | | February 2011 (1,861 KB) | February 2011 (2,339 KB) | | January 2011 (1,191 KB) | January 2011 (967 KB) | | December 2010 (1,609 KB) | | | November 2010 (1,170 KB) | November 2010 (1,073 kb) | | October 2010 (989 KB) | October 2010 (1,660 KB) |
2010 PDF Documents: |  Charts: (Power Point)
| | September 2010 (1,276 KB) | September 2010 (809 KB) | | July 2010 (1,471 KB) | July 2010 (608 KB) | | June 2010 (1,436 KB) | June 2010 (931 KB) | | May 2010 (1,374 KB) | May 2010 (1,049 KB) | | April 2010 (1,738 KB) | April 2010 (1,221 KB) | | March 2010 (1,452 KB) | March 2010 (858 KB) | | February 2010 (1,180 KB) | February 2010 (856 KB) | | January 2010 (1,121 KB) | January 2010 (894 KB) | | December 2009 (1,228 KB) | December 2009 (958 KB) | | November 2009 (1,273 KB) | November 2009 (1,318 KB) | | October 2009 (1,150 KB) | October 2009 (705 KB) | | September 2009 ( 656 KB) | September 2009 (746 KB) | | July 2009 (759 KB) | July 2009 (1,070 KB) | | June 2009 (677 KB) | June 2009 (1,857 KB) | | April 2009(380 KB) | April 2009 (1,386 KB) | | March 2009 (443 KB) | March 2009 (1,701 KB) | | February 2009 (442 KB) | February 2009 (1,732 KB) | | January 2009 (421 KB) | January 2009 (1,820 KB) | | December 2008 (445 KB) | December 2008 (1,795 KB) | | September 2008 (500 KB) | September 2008 (2,266 KB) | | July 2008 (434 KB) | July 2008 (1,312 KB) | | June 2008 (418 KB) | June 2008 (1,618 KB) | | May 2008 (443 KB) | May 2008 (1,659 KB) | | March 2008 (593 KB) | March 2008 (1,263 KB) | | February 2008 (497 KB) | February 2008 (1,303 KB) |
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