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Development Trends - The Monthly

This monthly background note is prepared for review by the Bank's Short-term Risk Monitoring Group (STRMG), and later distributed to a wider internal Bank audience and the Board of Executive Directors. The note helps to keep readers informed on high-frequency developments in areas that are crucial for setting the global environment for growth among developing countries:

²

The expansion of real side activity in the global economy continued through February (latest data), albeit at a different pace across regions. Global industrial production expanded at an annualized pace of 4.3 percent in the three months to February from 3.6 percent in January. This expansion in industrial production has been supported by the solid expansion in global trade that has been occurring since November 2012. Indeed, in February, the pace of expansion in global trade (14.6%, 3m/3m saar) was at about four times that of the expansion of industrial production.

²After the strengthening of real-side activity observed in Q1 2013, the global economy is likely to hit a soft patch in Q2 2013. Weakening business sentiment indicators towards the end of March and in April suggest economic activity could be weaker in Q2 compared to the rebound in Q1. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the World Bank’s Global Purchasing Manager’ Index (PMI) fell in March to 50.8 (i.e. barely above the expansion threshold of 50) from its most recent post-rebound peak of 51.3 in January.
²Financial markets have eased somewhat in recent weeks. Stock markets have been volatile in April, however in both the US, Germany and among developing countries, news of softening economic activity and earnings has led to a pull-back in stocks. After reaching fresh high’s in early April, US stocks have fallen by 0.5%. Germany’s DAX index is down 4.3% and the Emerging Market bench mark MSCI index is down some 2.2% in April. Japan, once again remains an exception as its monetary stimulus measures has led its TOPIX index to soar to a post-recession high (since mid-November, the index has surged some 60%, adding about $787 billion to the market valuation).
²Weakening demand side pressures, as the global economy enters a soft patch, coupled with more favorable supply-side conditions are contributing to the broad decline in metals, oil and agricultural commodity prices. Since mid-February metal prices have been declining.  Prices of tin, copper, nickel, and aluminum have declined by 17.4%, 15.4%, 13.8% and 10.3%, respectively, from their mid-February peaks to the 3rd week of April. Oil prices have also dropped (Brent by 18.1% and WTI by 9.5%) since mid-February.

Full Issue 

 2013

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 downloadMarch 2013 (2,947 KB)download February 2013 (4,423 KB)

 2012

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 download December 2012 (4,217 KB)
 downloadNovember 2012 (3,558 KB)download October 2012 (2,480 KB)
 downloadSeptember 2012 (2,248 KB)download August 2012 (RECESS)
 downloadJuly 2012  (1,531 KB)download June 2012 (1,365 KB)
download May 2012 (1,703 KB)download  April 2012 (1,448 KB)
download March 2012 (1,362 KB)  download February 2012 (1,013 KB)

 2011

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2010 

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download September 2010 (1,276 KB)downloadSeptember 2010 (809 KB)
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download June 2009 (677 KB)download June 2009 (1,857 KB)
download April 2009(380 KB)download April 2009 (1,386 KB)
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download December 2008 (445 KB)download December 2008 (1,795 KB)
download September 2008 (500 KB)download September 2008 (2,266 KB)
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download May 2008 (443 KB)download May 2008 (1,659 KB)
download March 2008  (593 KB)download March 2008 (1,263 KB)
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