Click here for search results

Development Trends - The Monthly

This monthly background note is prepared for review by the Bank's Short-term Risk Monitoring Group (STRMG), and later distributed to a wider internal Bank audience and the Board of Executive Directors. The note helps to keep readers informed on high-frequency developments in areas that are crucial for setting the global environment for growth among developing countries:

²

Global economic activity is strengthening, but progress is very uneven.  Developing countries (including China, Brazil and India) have been leading the upswing in economic activity with industrial production strong at a 5.8 percent annualized pace in Q3. In China, GDP expanded by 9.1% (q/q, annualized) up from 8.2% in Q2 with the services sector recording the fastest growth. Among high-income countries the situation is more nuanced. In the United States Q3 GDP growth accelerated to 2.0% (q/q, annualized) up from 1.3% in Q2, supported by strong growth in residential investment (14.4%) reflecting the pick-up in the housing market.

²Private capital flows to developing countries remain high, despite easing in October. Supporting the expected strengthening of real-side activity in developing countries in Q4, gross international capital flows to developing countries equaled $49 billion in October, the second highest inflow over the past 15 months, but down from the record $71bn of inflows during September. Euro Area debt turmoil in May caused capital flows to slow, but stabilization of financial market tensions and high-income monetary policy prompted the recent uptick in flows. Bond issuance was particularly strong at $32 billion in October, with 44% of the total destined for the financial sector.
²The overall picture of a picture of a hesitant firming of activity continues to be challenged by the downside risks. Increasingly the US fiscal cliff is of concern, with mounting evidence that it is impacting growth and investment already in Q3 and Q4 as firms hesitate to invest prior to a policy induced recession in 2013 H1.  Reflecting these concerns, equity markets have declined and “safe haven” bonds have performed better in recent weeks. By our estimations, if the fiscal cliff materializes, the US economy will be thrown back into a recession in 2013 (-0.2% GDP growth). Direct impacts on the developing countries GDP growth range between a decline of 0.6 and 1.3 percentage points, with East Asia and Latin America regions and oil exporters being amongst the hardest hit.
²Were external conditions to deteriorate, some developing countries have room for policy easing to support domestic demand, but others with higher inflation are more constrained. Subdued inflation rates relative to central bank targets (or historical averages) in China, Malaysia, Chile, Colombia and Indonesia indicate some space to reduce policy rates to support domestic demand and growth were an external shock to arise from a US “fiscal cliff” situation or an escalation of Euro Area debt tensions. But in spite of a recent downtick in food and crude oil prices, inflation remains high relative to targets (or historical averages) in Turkey, India, Mexico, and South Africa.

Full Issue 

 

 PDF Documents:

 

 downloadNovember 2012 (3,558 KB)download October 2012 (2,480 KB)
 downloadSeptember 2012 (2,248 KB)download August 2012 (RECESS)
 downloadJuly 2012  (1,531 KB)download June 2012 (1,365 KB)
download May 2012 (1,703 KB)download  April 2012 (1,448 KB)
download March 2012 (1,362 KB)  download February 2012 (1,013 KB)

 

 PDF Documents:

xls Charts: (Excel)

download September 2011 (786 KB)download September 2011 (1,598 KB)
download July 2011 (1.601 KB)download July 2011 (1,330 KB)
download June 2011 (1,632 KB)download June 2011 (1,331 KB)
download March 2011 (2,000 KB)download March 2011 (1,678 KB)
download February 2011 (1,861 KB)download February 2011 (2,339 KB)
download January 2011 (1,191 KB)downloadJanuary 2011 (967 KB)
download December 2010 (1,609 KB) 
download November 2010 (1,170 KB)download November 2010 (1,073 kb)
download October 2010 (989 KB)download October 2010 (1,660 KB)

 

 PDF Documents:

ppt Charts: (Power Point)

download September 2010 (1,276 KB)downloadSeptember 2010 (809 KB)
download July 2010 (1,471 KB)downloadJuly 2010 (608 KB)
download June 2010 (1,436 KB)downloadJune 2010 (931 KB)
download May 2010 (1,374 KB)download May 2010 (1,049 KB)
download April 2010 (1,738 KB)download April 2010 (1,221 KB)
download March 2010 (1,452 KB)download March 2010 (858 KB)
download February 2010 (1,180 KB)download February 2010 (856 KB)
download January 2010 (1,121 KB)download January 2010 (894 KB)
download December 2009 (1,228 KB)download December 2009 (958 KB)
download November 2009 (1,273 KB)download November 2009 (1,318 KB)
download October 2009 (1,150 KB)download October 2009 (705 KB)
download September 2009 ( 656 KB)download September 2009 (746 KB)
download July 2009 (759 KB)download July 2009 (1,070 KB)
download June 2009 (677 KB)download June 2009 (1,857 KB)
download April 2009(380 KB)download April 2009 (1,386 KB)
download March 2009 (443 KB)download March 2009 (1,701 KB)
download February 2009 (442 KB)download February 2009 (1,732 KB)
download January 2009 (421 KB)download January 2009 (1,820 KB)
download December 2008 (445 KB)download December 2008 (1,795 KB)
download September 2008 (500 KB)download September 2008 (2,266 KB)
download July 2008 (434 KB)download July 2008 (1,312 KB)
download June 2008 (418 KB)download June 2008 (1,618 KB)
download May 2008 (443 KB)download May 2008 (1,659 KB)
download March 2008  (593 KB)download March 2008 (1,263 KB)
download February 2008 (497 KB)download February 2008 (1,303 KB)

 

To receive email alerts for the STRMG, please contact GEM Administrators at gem@worldbank.org




Permanent URL for this page: http://go.worldbank.org/TWB42G2R80