Non-energy commodity prices in U.S. dollars rose by 2.6 percent in October with all main groups posting relatively strong gains. The increases were partly due to decline of the dollar, which fell 1.7 percent against the euro.
  
Crude oil prices surged 8.4 percent in October to $74.1/bbl, and approached $80/bbl in early November on slowly improving fundamentals and expectations of markets tightening next year. U.S. crude oil inventories remain high but they have been falling seasonally since April. Petroleum product stocks, on the other hand remain extremely high, particularly middle distillate, and should result in relatively weak heating oil prices this winter. Oil demand remains weak in the OECD, although y/y declines have moderated. Demand has been quite robust in Asia, and to a lesser degree in the Middle East. China’s oil demand grew by more than 9 percent y/y in the third quarter following an 8 percent jump in 2Q09.
  
Natural gas prices (U.S.) soared 35.8 percent in October—albeit from relatively low levels—due to cooler temperatures that boosted demand, as well as higher oil prices and continued injections into storage. Prices in November have slid nearly 25 percent from the October peak as mild temperatures returned, and inventories are at record highs. European natural gas prices rose 6.6 percent in October mainly due to higher oil prices. 
  
Agriculture prices rose 3.2 percent in October, with the largest increases in grains due to late harvests in the U.S. following late spring plantings, and aggravated by wet fall weather. Sorghum and maize prices were up 11-12 percent, as only 37 percent of the U.S. corn crop was harvested as of November 8th, versus 69 percent a year earlier. Soybean prices jumped 12 percent on drought-related supply problems in South America. Rubber prices climbed 8 percent on supply constraints in Thailand (heavy rains) and Indonesia (earthquake). Cocoa prices rose 7 percent from poor production prospects in Côte d’Ivoire, while cotton prices rose 4 percent on weather-related problems, especially in the U.S.      
  
Metals and minerals prices rose 1.7 percent in October with increases in all base metals although most were relatively small. Metals prices have been range-bound since summer as China’s restocking slows, and the anticipated restocking in industrial economies has yet to materialize. Zinc prices rose 10 percent due to falling stocks and rising Chinese import demand. Nickel prices increased 6 percent, despite rising LME stocks, supported by strikes in Canada. Gold and silver prices each rose 5 percent as investors seek a hedge against inflation and the dollar. Gold prices surged above $1,100/toz in early November following the The Reserve Bank of India’s purchase of 200 tonnes of gold from the IMF on November 2nd.