These briefs are informal notes for Bank staff on the development implications of current migration and remittances issues. They highlight emerging trends or topical issues, and are issued every second month (or more frequently if the occasion demands). Contributions are greatly welcome.
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Migration and Development Brief 11. A better-than-expected outcome for migration and remittance flows in 2009, but significant risks ahead. Newly available data show that officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries reached $338 billion in 2008, higher than our previous estimate of $328 billion. We maintain our expectation of a recovery in migration and remittance flows in 2010 and 2011, but the recovery is likely to be shallower with the result that remittance flows in the next two years are unlikely to reach the level reached in 2008. |
Migration and Development Brief 10. Outlook for Remittance Flows 2009-2011. Newly available data show that remittance flows to developing countries reached $328 billion in 2008, larger than our previous estimate of $305 billion. Remittances grew rapidly during 2007 and 2008, but have slowed down in many corridors since the last quarter of 2008. In line with a recent downward revision in the World Bank’s forecast of global economic growth, we have also lowered our forecasts for remittance flows to developing countries to -7.3 percent in 2009 from the earlier forecast of -5 percent.
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Migration and Development Brief 9. Revised Outlook for Remittance Flows 2009-2011: Remittances expected to fall by 5 to 8 percent in 2009. Revised forecasts for remittance flows to developing countries in the light of a downward revision to the World Bank's global economic outlook suggest a sharper decline of 5 to 8 percent in 2009 compared to our earlier projections. This decline in nominal dollar terms is small relative to the projected fall in private capital flows or official aid to developing countries. However, considering that remittances registered double-digit annual growth in the past few years, an outright fall in the level of remittance flows as projected now will cause hardships in many poor countries.
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Migration and Development Brief 8. Outlook for Remittance Flows 2008-2010: Growth expected to moderate significantly, but flows to remain resilient. Officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries are estimated to reach $283 billion in 2008, up 6.7 percent from $265 billion in 2007; but in real terms, remittances are expected to fall from 2 percent of GDP in 2007 to 1.8 percent in 2008. This decline, however, is smaller than that of private or official capital flows, implying that remittances are expected to remain resilient relative to many other categories of resource flows to developing countries.
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Migration and Development Brief 7. Protecting Temporary Workers: Migrant Welfare Funds from Developing Countries. This brief describes how countries of origin governments can play a major role in protecting their migrants abroad through migrant welfare funds. It shows that a welfare fund operated from the origin country and financed by migrants or their employers can offer a potential efficient solution to protecting migrants from vulnerable situations abroad. Protecting migrant workers through welfare funds also comes with some challenges: finding the right balance of services, creating meaningful partnerships, building accountability with its members, and involving destination countries.
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Migration and Development Brief 6. Managing Migration: Lessons from the Philippines. This note describes how the Philippine government helps its migrants by regulating overseas employment recruitment, informing migrants of available resources abroad, providing protection, and developing recording mechanisms to understand migrants' needs. Managing migration also comes with a price and governments need to develop a coordinated strategy to sustain such endeavors.
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Migration and Development Brief 5. Revisions to Remittance Trends 2007. Remittances to developing countries reached $251 billion in 2007. This brief also discusses concerns over a much-publicized decline in remittance received by Mexico in the first part of 2008, and argues that remittances may instead have grown although at a slower pace.
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Remittances Dispatch. US dollar depreciation and remittance flows to developing countries. Currency appreciation and rising costs of living have eroded the purchasing power of recipients in the major remittance-receiving countries. Preliminary estimates suggest that in the Philippines, over 90 percent of the increase in remittances between 2004 and 2007 went simply towards preserving the purchasing power of recipients, while in Mexico and India, the increase in remittances after accounting for currency appreciation and domestic inflation was less than half of the increase in US dollar terms.
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Migration and Development Brief 4. International Migration and Technological Progress. International migrants are an important channel for the transmission of technology and knowledge. The so-called “brain drain” associated with better educated citizens of developing countries working in high-income countries is acute in some developing countries. Developing countries benefit, however, from the temporary migration of managers and engineers; the return of well-educated emigrants; and contact with a technologically sophisticated diaspora. Remittances sent by migrants also promote technology diffusion by making investments more affordable.
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Migration and Development Brief 3. Recorded remittances to developing countries are estimated to reach $240 billion in 2007. The true size of remittances including unrecorded flows is even larger. The brief describes broad regional and country specific trends in remittance flows worldwide, and highlights some structural changes that will affect future flows.
See also Press release | Brief in French | Spanish | Arabic
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Migration and Development Brief 2. Remittance flows to developing countries to approach $200 billion in 2006.
This brief provides the latest estimates of remittance flows worldwide.
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Migration and Development Brief 1. U.S. immigration reform: some development implications.
United States Congress is debating the largest overhaul of US immigration law in two decades. This note discusses some of the implications for the migrants, their countries of origin, and the United States.
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