An important part of the World Bank's work on migration and remittances involves efforts to monitor and forecast remittance and migration flows, and to provide timely analysis on topics such as remittances, migration, and diaspora issues.
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Migration and Development Brief 11: A better-than-expected outcome for migration and remittance flows in 2009, but significant risks ahead
November 3, 2009
Newly available data show that officially recorded remittance flows to developing countries reached $338 billion in 2008, higher than our previous estimate of $328 billion. We maintain our expectation of a recovery in migration and remittance flows in 2010 and 2011, but the recovery is likely to be shallower with the result that remittance flows in the next two years are unlikely to reach the level reached in 2008.
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Blog post: Migration and Remittance Trends 2009 |
Migration and Development Brief 10: Outlook for Remittance Flows 2009-2011
July 13, 2009
Newly available data show that remittance flows to developing countries reached $328 billion in 2008, larger than our previous estimate of $305 billion. Remittances grew rapidly during 2007 and 2008, but have slowed down in many corridors since the last quarter of 2008. In line with a recent downward revision in the World Bank’s forecast of global economic growth, we have also lowered our forecasts for remittance flows to developing countries to -7.3 percent in 2009 from the earlier forecast of -5 percent.
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Blog post: 2009-11 Outlook
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Remittances and Natural Disasters - Ex-post Response and Contribution to Ex-ante Preparedness
June 2009
This paper analyzes macro and micro-economic evidence which suggest a positive role of remittances in preparing households against natural disasters and in coping with the loss afterwards. Remittances increase in the aftermath of natural disasters in countries that have more migrants abroad. Remittance-receiving households had higher per capita consumption in Bangladesh after the 1998 flood, seem to use cash reserves rather than sell livestock to cope with drought in Ethiopia, are more likely to have a concrete house and greater access to communication equipment in Burkina Faso and Ghana. These findings suggest they are better prepared against natural disasters.
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Revised Outlook for Remittance Flows 2009-2011: Remittances expected to fall by 5 to 8 percent in 2009
March 2009
Revised forecasts for remittance flows to developing countries in the light of a downward revision to the World Bank's global economic outlook suggest a sharper decline of 5 to 8 percent in 2009 compared to our earlier projections. This decline in nominal dollar terms is small relative to the projected fall in private capital flows or official aid to developing countries. However, considering that remittances registered double-digit annual growth in the past few years, an outright fall in the level of remittance flows as projected now will cause hardships in many poor countries.
Feature story | Blog posts: Crisis and Africa
Speak Out: Lead Economist Dilip Ratha participated in a live online discussion on the latest remittance forecast and other migration and development issues on April 8, 2009 at 10a.m. U.S. Eastern Time. You can read the entire transcript here.
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Protecting Temporary Workers: Migrant Welfare Funds from Developing Countries
October 2008
This brief describes how countries of origin governments can play a major role in protecting their migrants abroad through migrant welfare funds. It shows that a welfare fund operated from the origin country and financed by migrants or their employers can offer a potential efficient solution to protecting migrants from vulnerable situations abroad. Protecting migrant workers through welfare funds also comes with some challenges: finding the right balance of services, creating meaningful partnerships, building accountability with its members, and involving destination countries.
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"Brain Drain" and the Global Mobility of High-Skilled Talent
September 2008
This note outlines the challenges of retaining and attracting high-skilled professionals, briefly assesses both the "brain gain" and the "brain drain" in the health sector, and examines some of the existing programs that encourage return. It provides an overview of the role of the diaspora in fostering the transfer of knowledge, technology, capital, and remittances.
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Managing Migration: Lessons from the Philippines
August 2008
This note describes how the Philippine government helps its migrants by regulating overseas employment recruitment, informing migrants of available resources abroad, providing protection, and developing recording mechanisms to understand migrants' needs. Managing migration also comes with a price and governments need to develop a coordinated strategy to sustain such endeavors.
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Beyond Aid: New Sources and Innovative Mechanisms for Financing Development in Sub-Saharan Africa
April 2008
The development community has little choice but to continue to explore new sources of financing, innovative private-to-private sector solutions, and public-private partnerships to mobilize additional international financing. An analysis of country creditworthiness suggests that many countries in Sub-Saharan Africa may be more creditworthy than previously believed. Preliminary estimates suggest that Sub-Saharan African countries can potentially raise $1-3 billion by reducing the cost of international migrant remittances, $5-10 billion by issuing diaspora bonds, and $17 billion by securitizing future remittances and other future receivables.
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Feature Story: New Ways to Finance Development in Sub-Saharan Africa
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Remittances Dispatch: US dollar depreciation and remittance flows to developing countries
March 2008
Currency appreciation and rising costs of living have eroded the purchasing power of recipients in the major remittance-receiving countries. Preliminary estimates suggest that in the Philippines, over 90 percent of the increase in remittances between 2004 and 2007 went simply towards preserving the purchasing power of recipients, while in Mexico and India, the increase in remittances after accounting for currency appreciation and domestic inflation was less than half of the increase in US dollar terms.
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International Migration and Technological Progress
February 2008
International migrants are an important channel for the transmission of technology and knowledge. The so-called “brain drain” associated with better educated citizens of developing countries working in high-income countries is acute in some developing countries. Developing countries benefit, however, from the temporary migration of managers and engineers; the return of well-educated emigrants; and contact with a technologically sophisticated diaspora. Remittances sent by migrants also promote technology diffusion by making investments more affordable.
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Remittances, Consumption and Investment in Ghana
February 2008
This paper uses a new, nationally-representative household survey from Ghana to analyze within a rigorous econometric framework how the receipt of internal remittances (from within Ghana) and international remittances (from African or other countries) affects the marginal spending behavior of households on a broad range of consumption and investment goods, including food, education and housing. The findings show that households receiving remittances in Ghana do not spend more at the margin on food, education and housing than households with similar income levels and characteristics that do not receive remittances.
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Increasing the Macroeconomic Impact of Remittances on Development
November 2007
This paper reviews the recent country experiences on the impact of remittances on poverty, growth, real wages and external competitiveness, and provides available policy options for developing countries to deal with the consequences of large and persistent remittance inflows. It also discusses how developing countries can leverage remittances for improving their access to international capital markets. This paper was prepared for the G8 Outreach Event on Remittances in Berlin on November 28-30, 2007.
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Development Finance via Diaspora Bonds: Track Record and Potential
August 2007
A diaspora bond is a debt instrument issued by a country - or potentially, a sub-sovereign entity or a private corporation - to raise financing from its overseas diaspora. Israel and India have raised $35-40 billion using these bonds. Drawing on their experiences, this paper discusses the rationale, methodology, and factors affecting the issuance of diaspora bonds for raising external development finance.
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For other ongoing World Bank work on migration and remittances, see Related Links.
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